The Tight End TDs – 2020 Outlook was just last week, but I did come across a piece from that post that I didn’t get to fully explore. I found as we near the end of the Top 20 list of Tight End Touchdowns each year, that there was an abundance of Tight Ends that had 3 Touchdowns. So many that it was too much to put into the same image. I imagine it’s a combination of not as many Tight Ends getting touchdowns and 3 Touchdowns isn’t that many. So I created a second image to dive into the tight ends towards the bottom of the Top 20 Tight Ends with Touchdowns to see what they do the following year. We will take a look at the Tight End (again!) this week and those that had 3 Touchdowns in a given year to see what happened the following year!
If you want to familiarize yourself with last season results, checkout the: TDs, TD’s (Touchdowns) – 2019 Regular Season and TD’s (Touchdowns) II – 2019 Regular Season posts. Again, Touchdowns are a very hard statistic to predict. Although you may see a trend with certain players getting the luck of the touchdowns through the season. Below is an image that shows the last 5 years for Tight Ends who scored 3 Touchdowns.
Beyond the Top 14 Tight End Touchdowns, last 5 years
*Note this list is an extension from last weeks Tight End Image that goes from rank 15 and beyond for the 5 years. It shows all the Tight Ends that are tied in ranking with 3 Touchdowns.
I was looking from one year to the next to see how many of the previous years tight ends made the Top 20 Tight End Touchdown list the next year. As you follow the colors (Grey – 2015, Green – 2016, Red – 2017 and Blue – 2018) it helps to pick out who made the Top 20 Tight End Touchdown list the next year. In 2016, 4 tight ends from 2015 made it. In 2017, 3 tight ends from 2016 made the Top 20 list. While in 2018, 1 tight ends from 2017 made it. For 2019, 2 tight ends from 2018 made the Top 20. I continued to highlight rookies with the bright yellow designation beside their name as well.
The pattern and average looks low, with 2-3 tight ends from the previous year making the next years Top 20 list! Now, which 2-3 Tight Ends that scored 3 Touchdowns will be part of 2020’s Top 20 List?! Interesting to note that from 2015, 2 of the 4 tight ends scoring 3 touchdowns then made up the top 3 at the position for touchdowns in 2016 (Cameron Brate and Martellus Bennett)! From 2016, 1 of the 3 tight ends scoring 3 Touchdowns had the second most touchdowns in the Top 20 in 2017 (Rob Gronkowksi). From 2018, 2 of the tight ends that scored 3 touchdowns made their way to the top 3 of Tight End Touchdowns in 2019 (Mark Andrews and Darren Fells).
Impact of Previous Year 3 Touchdown TE?!
From the data, you aren’t seeing a ton of consistency as you do from those tight ends that are already in the Top 20 of Tight End Touchdowns from the previous year. Although, if you were late in the draft or want to take a chance on a 3 Touchdown Tight End from the previous year, I would keep in mind any of the following (highlighted bright red in 2019 in the image above):
- Evan Engram
- Darren Waller
- Blake Jarwin
- Jonnu Smith
- Noah Fant
- Tyler Higbee
- Eric Ebron
These seven tight ends are guys that I think have the most opportunity heading into the 2020 NFL Season to end up on the Top 20 list of Touchdowns for Tight Ends.
Evan Engram, has all the talent in the world he just needs to stay healthy throughout the season. Darren Waller, had plenty of opportunities with his Targets and receptions in 2019. Even if those drop a bit, he could be in line for 3+ Touchdowns in 2020. Blake Jarwin, a young emerging tight end for the Cowboys looking to take on more of the work that Jason Witten had last year. Similarly, Jonnu Smith is in line to take over Delanie Walker’s role. The Titans have shown they will give their tight ends opportunities after Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown.
Noah Fant, looking to grow from his rookie season in the Denver Broncos offense. His numbers line up favorably with other big name tight ends rookie years. Tyler Higbee, was last year’s success a product of the circumstances or will his production continue? Eric Ebron, (a previous Top 20 Tight End Touchdown player) is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. They have utilized their tight ends plenty in the past. It will be interesting to see how the work load is distributed between Ebron and Vance McDonald.
More Tight End TDs Final Thoughts
It is tough to predict exactly which Tight Ends will be getting Touchdowns each year. Many variables to take into account, so if you can use previous years information to help please do so. If you need a dart throw for your Tight End position or just some added depth. It may be wise to have these names at the ready. Who knows, they may end up being Top 3 at the position for Touchdowns in 2020! Keep in mind during the season, of trends or tendencies for players to find the end zone. If you believe a player is set for many Touchdowns this season, you know I would be interested in them!
If you missed the Tight End TDs – 2020 Outlook, Wide Receiver TDs – 2020 Outlook or Running Back TDs – 2020 Outlook posts from the last few weeks, check them out as you get your mind focused on fantasy football opportunities!
I hope everyone continues to stay safe and healthy!
Reference the Targets and TDs pages to see who had the opportunities and end-zone appearances through the 2019 regular season. If you enjoyed the article please share it with others (via the social media links).