The Running Back TDs – 2020 Outlook was last week, so let’s move onto wide receivers this week! Let’s review the Touchdowns aspect of the site and how previous years results could shed some light on what’s to come in 2020 for our Wide Receivers. If you want to familiarize yourself with last season results, checkout the: TDs, TD’s (Touchdowns) – 2019 Regular Season and TD’s (Touchdowns) II – 2019 Regular Season posts.
As I have said before, Touchdowns are a very hard stat to predict. Although you may see a trend with certain players getting the luck of the touchdowns through the season. Below is an image that shows the last 5 years for Touchdowns and how they relate to Wide Receivers.
Top 20 Wide Receiver Touchdowns, last 5 years
Initially, I was looking from one year to the next to see how many of the previous years wide receivers made the following year list. As you follow the colors (Grey – 2015, Green – 2016, Red – 2017 and Blue – 2018) it helps to pick out who stayed on the list from the previous year. In 2016, 5 wide receivers from 2015 made it. In 2017, 6 wide receivers from 2016 made the Top 20 list. While in 2018, 7 wide receivers from 2017 made it. For 2019, 10 wide receivers from 2018 made the Top 20.
The pattern looked like 2019 would give us 8 wide receivers from the previous year but it jumped up to 10 instead! Half of the wide receivers from the year before made the Top 20 in 2019. As an average over those years, 7 wide receivers from the previous year Top 20 list will make the current year list.
The second piece I thought was interesting, was the opportunity for rookie wide receivers to crack the Top 20 list each year. I notated the rookies with the highlight of yellow beside their name on each Top 20 Touchdown list. In 2015, 1 rookie made it. 2016 saw 3 rookies make it. In 2017, 1 rookie made the Top 20 list. 2018 had 2 rookies make it, while in 2019, 6 rookies made the Top 20 Touchdown list. The averages lean towards 2-3 wide receivers in 2020 to make the list.
Quick use of averages would say 7 wide receivers from the Top 20 list in 2019 will repeat in 2020. There will probably be 2 (maybe 3) rookie wide receivers that will be in the Top 20 list in 2020. Then 10-11 new wide receivers that were not even on the list in 2019 will show up in 2020. Just because they are new in 2020 doesn’t mean that they haven’t been on the list in previous years. We certainly see names of wide receivers come and go through the years with injury, use, offensive scheme, etc. Touchdowns are something to keep in mind as you decide your Wide Receivers to ride to fantasy football success in 2020!
Rookie Wide Receivers
- Justin Jefferson
- Henry Ruggs III
- CeeDee Lamb
- Denzel Mims
- Jalen Reagor
- Jerry Jeudy
- Antonio Gibson
- Antonio Gandy-Golden
- Michael Pittman Jr.
These nine rookie wide receivers are guys that I think have the most opportunity heading into the 2020 NFL Season (as noted in my 2020 NFL Schedule post) to end up on the Top 20 list of Touchdowns for Wide Receivers. Rookie Wide Receivers usually take a little bit to get up to speed on their new teams. A few will get you fantasy points through the year. Especially in the second half of the season, where playoff spots and runs are in the mix.
Justin Jefferson, has the opportunity to fill in the Stefon Diggs role in Minnesota. Henry Ruggs III, a speedster on a team that will need to keep putting up points since the defense doesn’t seem too great yet. CeeDee Lamb, joins a great offense, 7 touchdowns really doesn’t seem too unrealistic just yet. Denzel Mims, looks to fill the deep threat of Robby Anderson on this improving offense. Jalen Reagor, on an offensive team that won’t need him as the number one right away. So he could have some great chances in one on one coverage.
Jerry Jeudy, my number one rookie wide receiver going into the 2020 NFL Draft, could be a nice compliment to a bigger Courtland Sutton in Denver. Antonio Gibson, comparisons to a skill set as Christian McCaffrey, could allow for some touches in an offense that needs more play makers. Antonio Gandy-Golden again the same needing offense and has the opportunity to add to their young receiving corp upside. Michael Pittman Jr., another option for a quarterback in Rivers that we know likes to throw it. He may get his chances depending how things shake out.
Wide Receiver TDs Final Thoughts
It is tough to predict exactly which Wide Receivers will be getting Touchdowns each year. There are many variables to take into consideration but if you can use previous year information to help you moving forward then keep it in mind. Also, be aware during the season of trends or tendencies for players to find the end zone. If you believe a player is set for many Touchdowns this season, you know I would be interested in them!
If you missed the Running Back TDs – 2020 Outlook post from last week, give it a look as you get your mind focused on fantasy football opportunities!
I hope everyone continues to stay safe and healthy!
Reference the Targets and TDs pages to see who had the opportunities and end-zone appearances through the 2019 regular season. If you enjoyed the article please share it with others (via the social media links).