The Wide Receiver TDs – 2020 Outlook was last week, Running Back TDs – 2020 Outlook was the week prior. Let’s take a look at the Tight End this week and the Touchdowns aspect of the site! How previous years results could shed some light on what’s to come in 2020 for our Tight Ends. If you want to familiarize yourself with last season results, checkout the: TDs, TD’s (Touchdowns) – 2019 Regular Season and TD’s (Touchdowns) II – 2019 Regular Season posts.
As I have said before, Touchdowns are a very hard statistic to predict. Although you may see a trend with certain players getting the luck of the touchdowns through the season. Below is an image that shows the last 5 years for Touchdowns and how they relate to Tight Ends.
Top 20 Tight End Touchdowns, last 5 years
*Note as a means to keep things in check and not get too long I capped the Touchdowns at 4 for each year. There are some interesting names with 3 Touchdowns but the list became too long and I decided against showing them all beyond 20 here. Maybe a follow-up to come on that in another post!
Initially, I was looking from one year to the next to see how many of the previous years tight ends made the following year list. As you follow the colors (Grey – 2015, Green – 2016, Red – 2017 and Blue – 2018) it helps to pick out who stayed on the list from the previous year. In 2016, 8 tight ends from 2015 made it. In 2017, 7 tight ends from 2016 made the Top 20 list, while in 2018, 8 tight ends from 2017 made it. For 2019, 8 tight ends from 2018 made the Top 20.
The pattern and average looks pretty consistent, 8 tight ends from the previous year seem to make the next years Top 20 list! Now, which 8 Tight Ends will be part of 2020’s Top 20 List?! Interesting to note that since 2016 the following Tight Ends have made the list every year: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph. I did drop in QB/TE/FLEX candidate, Taysom Hill into the 2019 list as it sounds like he may get the FLEX/TE designation in 2020 and could be an option for fantasy managers.
Rookie Tight End Impact?!
The second piece I thought was interesting, was the opportunity for rookie tight ends to crack the Top 20 list each year. I notated the rookies with the highlight of yellow beside their name on each Top 20 Touchdown list. In 2015, 0 rookies made it. 2016 saw 1 rookie make it. In 2017, 3 rookies made the Top 20 list. 2018 and 2019 had 1 rookie make it each year. The averages lean towards 1-2 tight end rookies in 2020 to make the list.
We are looking at approximately 8 tight ends from the Top 20 list in 2019 to repeat in 2020. Expecting 1 (maybe 2) rookie tight ends to find their way to the Top 20 list in 2020. That leaves 10-11 new tight ends that were not even on the list in 2019 to show up in 2020. Just because they are new in 2020 doesn’t mean that they haven’t been on the list in previous years. We certainly see names of tight ends come and go through the years with injury, use, offensive scheme, etc. Touchdowns are something to keep in mind as you decide your Tight Ends to ride to fantasy football success in 2020!
Rookie Tight Ends
- Cole Kmet
- Devin Asiasi
- Dalton Keene
- Adam Trautman
- Charlie Woerner
These five rookie tight ends are guys that I think have the most opportunity heading into the 2020 NFL Season (as noted in my 2020 NFL Schedule post) to end up on the Top 20 list of Touchdowns for Tight Ends. Rookie Tight Ends usually take some time to get up to speed on their new teams. This year may even prove to be that much harder for rookies to make fantasy impacts because of their training, learning and growth limitations at this time from COVID-19.
Cole Kmet, isn’t on the most offensive team with the Chicago Bears but they do utilize the tight end. It may be their deepest position currently as well. Devin Asiasi, drafted by the New England Patriots and they have made superstars of tight ends. If he finds his spot he could be a resource for the new signal caller in New England! Dalton Keene, is in the same spot as Asiasi and we have seen multiple tight ends flourish in New England before. It will be interesting to see if just one or both of these guys get the playing time.
Adam Trautman, landed in a highly offensive system in New Orleans that does utilize multiple tight ends. Eager to see how quick Trautman will get his shot on the field. Charlie Woerner, is on a team with the 49ers that has done well with tight ends in the past. Will he get an opportunity in multiple tight end formations?! Or do the 49ers ride George Kittle and let Woerner have more time for growth in the 2020 NFL Season.
Tight End TDs Final Thoughts
It is tough to predict exactly which Tight Ends will be getting Touchdowns each year. Many variables to take into account so if you can use previous years information to help please do so. Keep in mind during the season, of trends or tendencies for players to find the end zone. If you believe a player is set for many Touchdowns this season, you know I would be interested in them!
I hope everyone continues to stay safe and healthy!
Reference the Targets and TDs pages to see who had the opportunities and end-zone appearances through the 2019 regular season. If you enjoyed the article please share it with others (via the social media links).