TDs for QBs – 2019 Regular Season

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Targets and TDs

I continue to look back at the 2019 Regular Season and those statistics that I utilize most. Those being the same as the site name, my Targets and TDs pages for 2019. With the last three weeks being dedicated to Targets (Targets RB – 2019 Regular Season, Targets TE – 2019 Regular Season and Targets WR – 2019 Regular Season) this week I get back to Touchdowns! Touchdowns and how they relate to the Quarterbacks (QBs) from 2019.

Earlier in the NFL off-season I wrote about the top 50 players with rushing and receiving touchdowns (TD’s (Touchdowns) – 2019 Regular Season) which just scratched the surface of QB success. Here we will look at the passing and rushing touchdowns in regards to quarterbacks in the 2019 Regular Season. Let’s leave out the Marcus Mariota pass TD to himself or the receiving TD to Matt Ryan, as a quarterback receiving a touchdown is just so rare (which means I’m sure we will get 3 quarterbacks scoring this way in 2020!).

Touchdowns are a significant driver of fantasy football success as most leagues will reward the passing touchdowns with 4 – 6 points. With rushing touchdowns getting 6 points in most leagues. As the player that most touches the football during the game, Quarterbacks have plenty of opportunities to score touchdowns and usually are the highest scoring players in fantasy football each year. Compared to Targets, Touchdowns are less consistent and predictable for the most part from year to year. Although if you find a trend or opportunity for those quarterbacks getting the touchdowns you will have the edge! This week let’s look at TDs!

Top 10 QBs in Touchdowns

2019 Regular Season compare to previous seasons

Below I highlighted the Top 10 QBs in regards to passing (P TD) and rushing (R TD) touchdowns to give their total TDs each year. 2019 is in Orange, 2018 in Green, 2017 in Blue, 2016 in Red and 2015 in Grey. I followed the years top 10 QBs into the next year by highlighting that QBs total TD’s (to see success in future seasons) in the next year with their current year color (ex. Green highlighted Total TDs in 2019 for a Top 10 QB in 2018). It helps show where a Top 10 QB from one year will go the next.

Of the Top 10 QBs from 2018 (highlighted Green), 3 stayed in the Top 10 in 2019 while 4 others stayed in the Top 20. The other 3 were not in the Top 20 because of retirement (Andrew Luck), injury (Ben Roethlisberger) and Philip Rivers just missed it at 23 Touchdowns.

Of the Top 10 QBs from 2017 (highlighted Blue), 6 stayed in the Top 10 in 2018 while the other 4 stayed in the Top 20.

Of the Top 10 QBs from 2016 (highlighted Red), 5 stayed in the Top 10 in 2017 while 3 stayed in the Top 20. The other 2 were not in the Top 20 due to injury (Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers).

Of the Top 10 QBs from 2015 (highlighted Grey), 3 stayed in the Top 10 in 2016 while 6 stayed in the Top 20. The other 1 was Ryan Fitzpatrick and there just wasn’t enough magic that year for the QB.

QB Thoughts & Takeaways

  • Expect regression to the mean in regards to rushing TDs for QBs. Dak Prescott has 2 previous seasons of 6 rushing TDs and just got 3 last year. I would imagine 4+ rushing TDs for Dak is realistic. Russell Wilson had 3 rushing TDs last year and that looks to be a max for him over the years. If Russ gets less than 3 rushing TDs next season, will I be surprised,…no I’d probably expect it.
  • Of the 50 highlighted quarterbacks over this 5 year timeframe only 2 healthy and active quarterbacks missed being a Top 20 quarterback the following year.
  • Russell Wilson has been in the Top 10 the past 3 seasons.
  • Patrick Mahomes made the Top 10 in 2019 in just 14 games (2 less than most).
  • It will be interesting to see if Lamar Jackson (7), DeShaun Watson (8) and Josh Allen (9) have peaked with their rushing touchdowns.

Top 10 QBs in Touchdowns

2020 Regular Season Projection/Prediction

RankPlayer
1Patrick Mahomes
2Russell Wilson
3Dak Prescott
4Ben Roethlisberger
5Lamar Jackson
6Carson Wentz
7Drew Brees
8Matt Ryan
9Aaron Rodgers
10Kyler Murray

For the 2020 Projection/Prediction I kept 5 quarterbacks from the Top 10 QBs in 2019 and mixed in some that were in the Top 20 in 2019. I could certainly see arguments for any of the following to be considered a top 10 QB for Touchdowns in 2020: Tom Brady, Jared Goff, Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones and DeShaun Watson. Did I just about fill out my Top 20 for 2020?! I imagine my beginning of the season QB rankings could look different than this, depending on the transactions that happen up until the season starts. To keep the trend of a different QB having the most TDs over the last 5 years, I suppose that would mean Dak Prescott should be at the top of the list in 2020. It will be fun to see how it shakes out in 2020!

TDs for QBs Final Thoughts

As you are reviewing the quarterback position for 2020, keep in mind their touchdowns! Most of the time they will be throwing them but every so often they tuck it and run it in themselves. Looking at previous years top 10 QBs is a great start but doesn’t guarantee their finish in the current year. Note the names that seem to find a way into the top of the year end rankings more than once. While keeping in mind those that missed the top 10 last year may be in line to return to it this year. At the end of the day (or season) the best ability is availability.

The more the NFL leans on the passing game, the more valuable the quarterbacks are that throw those passes. Do you pick all the highlighted players in the first few rounds of your 2020 drafts? Probably not, especially since quarterbacks as a whole score more points than other positions. Although when you compare them to others around their average draft position, I would tend to lean towards the quarterback that is getting more touchdowns than not.

Reference the Targets and TDs pages to see who had the opportunities and end-zone appearances through the 2019 regular season. If you enjoyed the article please share it with others (via the social media links).

Targets and TD's

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